Friday 28th September 2007
The time for talking is over as Scotland take on Italy in this winner-takes-all game in Saint Etienne on Saturday.
The equation is one of simplicity, the winner advances to the quarter-finals, the loser goes home, and is left to rue their missed opportunity for another four years. Add to that the expectation of two proud nations resting on the players' shoulders and the pressure is intensified dramatically. Losing, then, is a fate not worth contemplating.
It is not as if either of these sides expected it to be any different, such was the make-up of the pool and fixture schedule. Both have carefully negotiated their way towards their date with destiny. Not that their journeys have been pretty, far from it, but the bottom line remains: they are both here and both know that their respective World Cup campaigns boil down to eighty minutes of rugby.
Both coaches will be hoping, nay praying, that their meticulous planning will bear fruit in the form of the required victory they both so desperately seek. It is fair to say that their planning has, as of yet, failed to materialise into a tangible performance on the paddock. In this sense Italy have more to worry about than Scotland, but only marginally.
Frank Hadden will, whilst not delighted with what he has witnessed thus far, head to the Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in good spirits. His side may not have found top gear yet, but they are a long way from neutral, while Italy have been stuck in reverse.
The rugby may not be pretty, but then for once it is only the result that matters. Having said that both coaches will tell you that if their teams can put together a good performance the result will take care of itself. And herein lies the problem, neither side has managed to muster a complete performance.
To their credit Scotland have come the closest, albeit against Portugal, but since then have struggled to recreate the kind of form that earned them a warm-up win over Ireland. If they can produce a forward display with as much zest and momentum as that day, then Italy will be blown away, of that there is no doubt.
In order to do this they will need Jason White to be at his imperious best; he is the life and soul of the team after all. Without him Scotland are a shadow of the side he makes them. To accredit so much to one man may seem unjust but in White's case it is accepted his effect is a monumental one.
Errors have riddled the Scots game for the last three weeks and will need to be eradicated at best, or minimised at worst, for any kind of meaningful performance to materialise. For that to be the case they need to approach the game in a relaxed state of mind, easier said than done admittedly.
The Azzurri have stumbled and fallen their way to this stage. Two displays packed full of inept rugby hardly helped to rectify the considerable damage done by New Zealand in the opening round. The important fact is that they managed to win, despite playing poorly, against Portugal and Romania. Time then to rediscover their form that impressed so much in the Six Nations.
Back-to-back wins over Scotland themselves and then Wales in the Six Nations augured well for Italy, but since then they have been decidedly average. That they have a chance of making the World Cup quarter-finals for the first time in their history owes more to their pool than their current state of affairs.
It's hardly ideal that their talisman, and captain, Marco Bortolami has been ruled out of his country's most important game in their history with a neck injury then. Despite coach Pierre Berbizier claiming he will not be a big loss, Italy will not be the same without him. He is to Italy what Jason White is to Scotland.
Given that they will not be afforded the luxury of three converted tries in the opening seven minutes again, Italy will need to build a game that mixes the brawn of their forwards with the limited, yet effective talent of their back line. Simply taking Scotland on pound for pound up front will not be enough.
So the scene is set for a titanic struggle between two sides sharing the same dream. All that remains is to see if the flower of Scotland wilts under the passionate attacks of the Azzurri, or if it blossoms amidst a performance worthy of World Cup quarter-finalists.
One to Watch:
For Scotland: If Scotland are to emerge victorious they will need a complete team effort, but for that to happen there is one man who has to stand tall. Jason White is the very heartbeat of this Scotland team, and so much revolves around him. From a reliable source at the line out, to the core of a solid defence White is the key factor. The improvement in Scotland's performances has been notable since his return from injury and he will once again need to be omnipresent against Italy.
For Italy: With the loss of skipper Marco Bortolami in the week the onus is firmly on Italy to step up to the plate, something they have thus far failed to do. There have been fleeting performances from key players, but nothing of note in terms of consistency. The battle will be won in the forwards, and to that end you will need to keep an eye on Sergio Parisse, the affable number eight from Stade Français. He is yet to reach the heights we know he can and now the chips are down it is time for him to deliver. Nothing less than a barnstorming display will suffice.
Head to Head: Both sides will seek a platform from their forwards, ultimately only one side will get their hearts' desire. And it comes down to one man on each side. The battle between Mike Blair (Scotland) and Alessandro Troncon (Italy) will be paramount to their respective teams' success. Blair offers a game packed full of pace and awareness, where as the wily Troncon takes a more physical approach. Contrasting styles they have, a united goal they share, and only one will walk away with his head held high. Let the games begin.
Recent Results:
2007: Italy won 37-17, Murrayfield
2006: Scotland won 13-10, Stadio Flaminio
2005: Scotland won 18-10, Murrayfield
2004: Italy won 20-14, Stadio Flaminio
2003: Scotland won 47-15, Murrayfield
2003: Scotland won 33-25, Murrayfield
2002: Scotland won 29-12, Stadio Flaminio
2001: Scotland won 23-19, Murrayfield
2000: Italy won 34-20, Stadio Flaminio
1999: Scotland won 30-12, Murrayfield
1998: Italy won 25-21, Treviso
1996: Scotland won 29-22, Murrayfield
Prediction: When all is taken into account one concludes that the quest for a quarter-final place will yet again have to wait for Italy. It will not be the finest of games from a spectator's point of view, but Scotland will have too much to offer not to win this one. Scotland by 10
The Teams:
Scotland: 15 Rory Lamont, 14 Sean Lamont, 13 Simon Webster, 12 Rob Dewey, 11 Chris Paterson, 10 Dan Parks, 9 Mike Blair, 8 Simon Taylor, 7 Allister Hogg, 6 Jason White, 5 Jim Hamilton, 4 Nathan Hines, 3 Euan Murray, 2 Ross Ford, 1 Gavin Kerr.
Replacements: 16 Scott Lawson, 17 Craig Smith, 18 Scott MacLeod, 19 Kelly Brown, 20 Chris Cusiter, 21 Andrew Henderson, 22 Hugo Southwell.
Italy: 15 David Bortolussi, 14 Kaine Robertson, 13 Gonzalo Canale, 12 Mirco Bergamasco, 11 Andrea Masi, 10 Ramiro Pez, 9 Alessandro Troncon (c), 8 Sergio Parisse, 7 Mauro Bergamasco, 6 Josh Sole, 5 Carlo Del Fava, 4 Santiago Dellapè, 3 Martin Castrogiovanni, 2 Carlo Festuccia, 1 Salvatore Perugini.
Replacements: 16 Fabio Ongaro, 17 Andrea Lo Cicero, 18 Valerio Bernabò, 19 Leonardo Ghiraldini, 20 Paul Griffen, 21 Roland de Marigny, 22 Ezio Galon.
Date: Saturday September 29, 2007
Kick off: 21:00 (20:00 BST, 19:00 GMT)
Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Saint Etienne
Referee: Jonathan Kaplan
Touch judges: Wayne Barnes, Hugh Watkins
Television match official: Dave Pearson
Assessor: Bob Francis
By Marcus Leach www.planetrugby.com
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