Thursday 13th September 2007
Decisions have been made and on Friday night in Paris still more decisions will be made which will have a serious bearing on the future progress of each of these sides at the Rugby World Cup. After all the winner has a much gentler path from Saturday onwards.
Decisions were made about the composition of the two teams. Each of the teams had outside input into their decision-making. Phil Vickery of England and Schalk Burger of South Africa will not be playing because they have been cited and suspended. It is a decision more likely to affect South Africa than England. Who will do the tackling if Burger is not there?
The decision-making does not seem to have been always as decisive as one would expect. England had a tough decision to make with the absence of both its top fly-halves. Jonny Wilkinson is yet to be fit enough to play in the World Cup and Olly Barkley, his replacement against the USA, was injured during the week. That left coach Brian Ashton to decide on another fly-half - between Mike Catt and Andy Farrell, and the lot fell upon Farrell. Or did it? Did it really fall on Catt? Does it mean that wearing 10 and 12 will be numbers on the back more than set positions at scrum and line-out? No doubt Farrell and Catt will work closely together and may even interchange. But it does mean that there is bulk to meet bulk should the Springboks use their heavies to pound down the fly-half's channel.
If they interchange what will it be to do? Farrell at fly-half on South African ball to tackle at close quarters? Catt at fly-half on England ball to kick and to give Farrell a chance to charge at Steyn? The way they are positioned may well be a key to the way England plays and its chance of success.
And there were all the other decisions surrounding team selection and how that team is going to play. After all both sides will want to have their best players available and be at their very best.
They have met in Paris in a World Cup before - back in 1999 at the same ground on a day when England were expected to win and got clobbered. This time, it seems, South Africa are expected to win. Will they get clobbered?
Overconfidence has forever been the besetting sin of South African rugby. They are best with backs to the wall, when the writing on the wall writes them off. Now England are at a low ebb, battling to keep head above water, vilified from all quarters, battling to score tries, generally unimpressive.
South Africa are on the up. They are said to have a monster pack of abrasive individuals and they score tries. How much bigger their monsters are than the England monsters is a moot point, and in any case will size in this contest matter most? They score tries - kings of the intercept, rather than the flowing, well constructed tries that Wallabies and All Blacks are capable of - and the French were able to do before they met the Pumas.
Like all teams England and South Africa work on their defensive patterns and like the way that they defend. Tries could well be a rarity - depending either on the rolling maul or a burst of speedy genius. Wouldn't be fascinating to watch two sides of collective Sumo wrestles moving, mastodon-like, towards a goal-line while the referee struts around saying things like "Get back", "That's once"? It may not be entertaining but for ardent supporters victory is the greatest entertainment of all.
Imagine how the English relief at victory will burst out into exuberance if their team wins.
It may not be an entertaining match. We may well have two fly-halves sitting back and hoofing downfield.
That said England has not a Bryan Habana. Jason Robinson's feet are on the ancient side now and no longer skip long the green land as once they did, whereas Habana is a special talent. The South African centres look better than their opposite numbers where young Frans Steyn could be a handful for ageing Mike Catt, though Catt is likely to be less prone to error and may well have Farrell to do some of the tackling for him.
On the other hand England do not have a player as erratic and inexperienced as the Springbok wing, JP Pietersen.
At scrum-half South Africa seem to have a decisive edge in Fourie du Preez and important player with his all-round skills.
That takes us to the pack. This could be a pretty even match unless some side can find a means of getting the big men on the rumble forward. This is where Du Preez and Juan Smith and even Butch James could be telling for South Africa.
The line-outs could be interesting for South Africa with the athletic Victor Matfield who seems so able to suss out the opposition. After all England lost three against the USA.
The scrums will be a hard battle.
England may well find it beneficial to have had an extra day's lay off since their first match and to have played less abrasive opponents than the Samoans in their first match.
Players to watch:
Andy Farrell (England). He has not had a great time since switching from Rugby League - a big man but yet to show if he is a clever one. A fly-half traditionally needs to be clever but much may well depend on the puppet-masters and the strings they pull. But then how is he going to be fly-half? Is he going to be fly-half? Will he and catch swap positions? Will this add to Farrell's confusion?
Bryan Habana (South Africa). Will he be able to keep it up - so slight , so slender, so electric? He is a shining light in the black sameness of world rugby.
Head to Head: Burly Butch James (South Africa) against burlier Andy Farrell (England). Frans Steyn, the young South Africa against Mike Catt, the old South African. Veteran Os du Randt (South Africa) against young Matt Stevens (England) who probably idolised the popular old warhorse when he was growing up in South Africa. Big Danie Rossouw (South Africa) against big Nick Easter (England), neither a creative No.8, could provide an interesting bashing match.
Results since the last World Cup:
2007 South Africa won 55-22 at Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria
2007 South Africa won 58-10 at Vodacom Park, Bloemfontein
2006 South Africa won 25-14 at Twickenham, London
2006 England won 33-21 at Twickenham, London
2004 England won 32-16 at Twickenham, London
Prediction: Beware the British bulldog when it is an underdog. Be nervous about the Springbok when it starts pronking before time. Put your head on a guillotine and say England by three points.
Teams:
England: 15 Jason Robinson, 14 Josh Lewsey, 13 Jamie Noon, 12 Mike Catt, 11 Paul Sackey, 10 Andy Farrell, 9 Shaun Perry, 8 Nick Easter, 7 Tom Rees, 6 Martin Corry (captain), 5 Ben Kay, 4 Simon Shaw, 3 Matt Stevens, 2 Mark Regan, 1 Andrew Sheridan.
Replacements: 16 George Chuter, 17 Perry Freshwater, 18 Steve Borthwick, 19 Lewis Moody, 20 Andy Gomarsall, 21 Peter Richards, 22 Mathew Tait.
South Africa: 15 Percy Montgomery, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Jaque Fourie, 12 François Steyn, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Butch James, 9 Fourie du Preez, 8 Danie Rossouw, 7 Juan Smith, 6 Wikus van Heerden, 5 Victor Matfield, 4 Bakkies Botha, 3 Brendon Botha, 2 John Smit (captain), 1 Os du Randt.
Replacements: 16 Bismarck du Plessis, 17 CJ van der Linde, 18 Johann Muller, 19 Bob Skinstad, 20 Ruan Pienaar, 21 André Pretorius, 22 Wynand Olivier.
Date: Friday, 14 September
Kick-off: 21.00 (20:00 BST, 19.00 GMT)
Venue: Stade de France, Saint Denis
Expected weather conditions: Scattered clouds with a high of 23°C, dropping to 13°C and a northwesterly wind of 14 km/h., dropping to 7 km/h.
Referee: Joël Jutge
Touch judges: Kelvin Deaker, Carlo Damasco
Television match official: Simon McDowell
Assessor: Ian Scotney
By Paul Dobson www.planetrugby.com
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