By MARC HINTON - RugbyHeaven | Monday, 10 September 2007
Does it ever strike you as ironic that the All Blacks' fiercest, most vitriolic critics all ply their trade somewhere around the UK? If I was a northern hemisphere scribe right now I'd be turning my poison pen on my own teams who have started the World Cup with all the menace of a poodle at a pit bull parade.
France? They were a joke as they choked on the expectation and pressure of being hosts. England? Well, put it this way, making hard work of the USA isn't the best of signs. Ireland? Ditto Namibia. Scotland? Ditto Portugal. Wales? Trailing Canada 9-17 after nearly an hour indicates there's still some work to do there, even if they did finish with a flourish.
Hmmm. Either there's an elaborate ruse going on here – you know, luring us all into a false sense of security by pretending to be incompetents – or the northern hemisphere challenge looks to be a non-entity this World Cup.
All of which shouldn't really surprise. The World Cup has been held twice in the north, and both times it was won by the Wallabies. The way it's looking right now – and it is still early days, granted – this year's champion looks almost certain to come from the southern hemisphere, or more particularly the Tri-Nations.
There is still time for the northern sides to turn things round, let's make that clear. Style points count for next to nothing in the pool stages of a World Cup and the tournament's history is littered with winners who have spluttered through an unimpressive group match or two along the way.
But the signs certainly don't look good for the Six Nations hopefuls.
France could yet turn things round, and the hosts are far from dead and buried in a group that could come down to a points countback should Ireland topple Argentina and Les Bleus prevail over the Irish – realistic scenarios both.
But, purely on what we saw in their tournament opener against the Pumas, there appears to be no magic button for the hosts to push. They have a plodding attack, some fallible playmakers, and a clear lack of line-breaking ability. To be honest, the expectation that the French can take their game up a level is based purely on some mythical notion of them repeating their 1999 heroics, rather than on anything that recent form has hinted at.
And now, having painted themselves into a corner, it's difficult to see the French escaping. They're staring down the barrel of a quarter-final matchup against the All Blacks in Cardiff, which would not only negate their home advantage, but be a massive psychological hurdle for them to clear. Even worse, they could become the first host nation to be eliminated at the group stage if they slip up at all against Ireland on September 22.
The pressure will mount on Bernard Laporte's team too. They'll be copping some fierce criticism for their insipid effort against the Pumas – and rightly so. It's do-or-die for them from now on and they'll feel the heat, particularly as that Irish showdown looms on the horizon. I get the feeling the French are their most dangerous when they're relaxed and they feel as though they have nothing to lose. That's far from the case right now.
England quite simply don't appear to have the capabilities to defend their crown, or go even close. They do have some hard heads in their squad and of course the Jonny Wilkinson factor lurks, but there's just no evidence of Brian Ashton's side suddenly finding the sparkling form you'll need to topple any of the Tri-Nations teams.
Ireland perhaps have the best chance of figuring in the semifinals amongst the northern contingent, but they'll need to shake off the lethargy they showed first up against Namibia where they basically sleepwalked through the second half. The experience is certainly there to get them through a group that has suddenly opened up.
The rest you can pretty much discount. Wales won't push Australia and will then make their customary quarter-final exit, while Scotland face a similar sort of script with a daunting meeting against the All Blacks in Edinburgh apparently set to see them send out the backup troops. Pathetic.
Of course I haven't mentioned the Italians. The Azzurri were nothing short of abysmal in the pool opener against the All Blacks where they pretty much hoisted the white flag from the opening minutes.
I don't buy this tosh either about them being overawed by the All Blacks, about them showing too much respect to the world's No 1 side. Italy have been playing in the Six Nations, and in World Cups, for long enough now to realise what this is all about. Against a team like New Zealand if you don't show with intensity, you don't have a show. Full stop.
If the opening skirmishes showed one other thing to me, it was the miserable failure the IRB have made of trying to make rugby the global game it purports to be.
Italy and Japan have made almost no tangible progress over the last eight or 12 years. They were cannon-fodder back in the '90s and they're still cannon-fodder now. Heaven only knows what the Japanese do with all that money that pays all those exhorbitant salaries they throw around up there.
Samoa have gone backwards, Fiji remain an enigmatic outfit and Tonga have no realistic chance of an upset.
Rugby's global title remains the preserve of the chosen few, with Argentina the only side to have broken into those ranks over the last couple of decades.
In fact, after a mixed bag of an opening weekend of the latest instalment of Rugby World Cup, we have a lot to thank the Pumas for. Significant upsets are needed for rugby to remain credible, and the Argentinians provided the tournament an early shot in the arm with their inspired victory over the feeble French.
Now can they repeat the dose against Ireland?
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