Thursday 20th September 2007
This is a big match for both countries. Lose and France are staring at making history by becoming the first host nation not to make the quarter-finals.
Ireland have been there before - in 1999, and they know it's not a pleasant experience. Lose this and they have to beat Argentina, and probably beat them well, to get into the play-offs. They are staring at the possibility of Lens 1999 when Argentina dumped them out.
This year it will be all the more miserable for Ireland as they went into the 2007 Rugby World Cup with such high hopes.
They believed they could take on the best and beat them. Their first two matches suggest that they do not have a snowball's chance of beating the best - or the eighth best for that matter.
The chance of their not making the quarter-final is real. Even their coach is speaking of a crisis. It may seem odd to speak of a crisis when they have played two and won two. It's the way that they have played that has caused national despair.
Their two matches have been against humble Namibia and humble Georgia. They won both but not convincingly. They and Namibia scored the same number of tries in the second half and Georgia, beaten by Agen and Auch in warm-up matches, were unlucky not to beat Ireland who won 14-10, beaten for territory and possession and surviving by centimetres as the Georgians flung themselves at and over the Irish line.
The reason for the sudden Irish decline is a mystery. They have the same coach and the same team that has been doing so well. The surmise is that the spirit is unwilling or disunified. That is a surprise.
Eddie O'Sullivan may be dictatorial but his troops must be used to his ways by now and they have been winning ways.
Brian O'Driscoll is the same Brian O'Driscoll hailed as the greatest captain in the world. Paul O'Connell is no longer the imposing figure he was but his face tells a tale of intent. Peter Stringer, described by O'Sullivan as a stalwart, has been dropped right out at the age of 29. O'Sullivan said: "He hasn't been the Peter Stringer of old." That could be said of many of the senior players - O'Driscoll, O'Connell, D'Arcy, O'Gara and on.
In fact, which of the Irish players has been the player he was of old. Have they perhaps been around too long? Are they too old? There have been regular denials of any disharmony in the camp, so many that one becomes convinced that there is disharmony.
France had a rickety start but against strong opposition and then they had a big win against a weak and weakened Namibian side, but it was not all that convincing - better, but not convincing, for their handling was not always up to standard.
The clash in this match will start up front. Up front Ireland were outplayed by Georgia. They are likely to find France stronger, faster, and sharper than Georgia. The battle up front is going to make huge demands of the Irish pack. Even without Fabien Pelous, France are an immense force up front. Their front row is considerably better than the Irish front row. Ten scrums against Georgia produced seven resets and five collapses. The Irish were battling.
Without Pelous and with a loose forward in his place you would expect O'Connell and O'Callaghan with back-up man O'Kelly to clean up in line-outs.
The French loose forwards look a lot better than their Irish counterparts who have been largely anonymous so far, perhaps because of the wobbly tight five ahead of them.
Give the forward battle to France and Ireland need a second plan. The French half-back pairing is not all that settled and the wayward genius of Frédéric Michalak of the patterned scalp could prove fragile, but then Ireland's settled half-back pairing has been unsettled.
At 26 Eoin Reddan is not a baby but with four caps he does not match Stringer's experience. Will O'Gara star or will his nondescript form persist? The half-backs will go a long way to determining how the two sets of centres will perform. France may well have the edge in the back three though there is not much to choose there if all play to potential.
All of that would suggest that France should win. But a team is often greater or less than the sum of its parts.
Maybe the French will have another Argentinian night. Maybe Ireland will suddenly rise and unite the four proud provinces into a proud rugby team again. Maybe the bounce of the ball will go wrong. Maybe Jean-Baptiste Elissalde will not kick at goal as well as O'Gara. Maybe Michalak will fall apart. Maybe the Irish performance up to now has been a policy of show nothing to lull the French into a false sense of security. Maybes are the spice of sport.
There is nothing much to choose between the two when it comes to discipline. France have conceded 12 penalties in their two matches, Ireland 13.
Referee Chris White will be well known to both sides. He has 40 Tests behind his name - ten involving France, five involving Ireland. He has refereed the two together once - on 2004 when France won 27-14.
The teams have one of the best referees in the world, a calm man, one of the greatest stadiums in the world and ideal weather. There is nothing to fear on those scores. The only fear is defeat, which could be so disappointing.
World Cup history is on France's side. The two have met twice before in World Cup quarter-finals, and on each occasion France have won - 36-12 at King's Park in Durban in 1995 and 43-21 at Colonial Stadium, Melbourne in 2003.
Players to watch: You will see Sébastien Chabal, the wild man of world rugby with his long hair and beard and his bullocking runs. He is remarkably fast for a lock but does he have the lock's steadfastness? You will want to see how Eoin Reddan gets on as he steps into Stringer's shoes. He offers greater variety than Stringer in his strength and speed but he is sure to attract the attentions of strong Jean-Baptiste Elissalde and rough men like Chabal, Serge Betsen and Julien Bonnaire.
Head to Head The centres - that is potentially the biggest clash of the match: David Marty andDamien Traille of France against Brian O'Driscoll and Gordon D'Arcy of Ireland. BOD, BOD, BOD. If he fires, Ireland fires. There have been moments at the World Cup but brief ones. He is up against stocky David Marty whose hands were atrocious against Namibia. Ireland's performance depends so much on the magnificent skill and competitiveness of Brian O'Driscoll. Heaven knows how bad the French backs can be against opposition of such calibre with space closed down. Traille and D'Arcy are both experienced men, Traille with more all-round skills, D'Arcy with greater attacking flair. But France have Yannick Jauzion on the bench as well...
Recent results
2007: France won 20-17 at Croke Park, Dublin
2006: France won 43-31 at Stade de France, Paris
2005: France won 26-19 at Lansdowne Road, Dublin
2004: France won 35-17 at Stade de France, Paris
2003: France won 43-21 Colonial Stadium, Melbourne
2003: Ireland won 15-12 at Lansdowne Road, Dublin
2002: France won 44-5 at Stade de France, Paris
2001: Ireland won 22-15 at Lansdowne Road, Dublin
2000: Ireland won 25-27 at Stade de France, Paris
Prediction: On current form, the warm-up matches and the two World Cup matches, the French are probably the better side. Recent history suggests that they are the better side. And, in any case, down the years they win more than they lose against Ireland. Will the Irish suddenly find the fighting spirit their nation is so famous for? Will they find the luck associated with their name? Will the French come apart at the seams and be whistled off Stade de France? We suggest that if the French do not win by more than 10 points or more, the Irish will win by three. It is a match with intriguing possibilities, but we'll go for the former option. We believe that France will win by more than ten.
The teams:
France: 15 Clément Poitrenaud, 14 Vincent Clerc, 13 David Marty, 12 Damien Traille, 11 Cédric Heymans, 10 Frédéric Michalak, 9 Jean-Baptiste Elissalde, 8 Julien Bonnaire, 7 Thierry Dusautoir, 6 Serge Betsen, 5 Jérôme Thion, 4 Sébastien Chabal, 3 Pieter de Villiers, 2 Raphaël Ibañez (captain), 1 Olivier Milloud.
Replacements: 16 Dimitri Szarzewski, 17 Jean-Baptiste Poux, 18 Lionel Nallet, 19 Yannick Nyanga, 20 Lionel Beauxis, 21 Yannick Jauzion, 22 Aurélien Rougerie.
Ireland:15 Girvan Dempsey, 14 Shane Horgan, 13 Brian O'Driscoll (captain), 12 Gordon D'Arcy, 11 Andrew Trimble, 10 Ronan O'Gara, 9 Eoin Reddan, 8 Denis Leamy, 7 David Wallace, 6 Simon Easterby, 5 Paul O'Connell, 4 Donncha O'Callaghan, 3 John Hayes, 2 Jerry Flannery, 1 Marcus Horan.
Replacements: 16 Frankie Sheahan, 17 Simon Best, 18 Malcolm O'Kelly, 19 Neil Best, 20 Isaac Boss, 21 Paddy Wallace, 22 Gavin Duffy.
Date: Friday, September 21
Kick-off: 21:00 (20:00 BST, 19:00 GMT)
Venue: Stade de France, Paris
Expected weather conditions: Partly cloudy with a day high of 22°C, dropping to an amiable 13°C and a wind of 14 km/h, dropping to 10 km/h.
Referee: Chris White
Touch judges: Dave Pearson, Hugh Watkins
Television match official: Jonathan Kaplan
Assessor: Michel Lamoulie
By Paul Dobson www.planetrugby.com
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