Springboks out to confirm status as world's best

Paul Rees | www.guardianco.uk | Friday July 4, 2008

We will know better whether South Africa deserve their world No1 ranking after they take on the All Blacks tomorrow

Are South Africa the world champions or merely the World Cup holders? It is a question which will have a more likely answer tomorrow week.

By then the Springboks will have played their first two matches in the Tri-Nations, both against New Zealand and both away, tomorrow in wintry and windy Wellington and the following week in Dunedin. South Africa may be unbeaten in their last 13 internationals, but it is 10 years since they last won in the land of the long white cloud (in Wellington) while the men in black have won their last 29 Tests at home.

The Springboks only faced two top-ranking sides on their way to winning the World Cup: England, in the group stage and the final, and Argentina in the semi-final. The Pumas' opening night victory over France had an El Nino effect on the tournament, throwing everything out of balance, and South Africa were the main beneficiaries. They had the luck of the draw, which is why it is hazardous to use a knock-out tournament, albeit one with an initial group element, to determine the best side in the world.

South Africa are, by virtue of what they achieved in France, at the top of the world rankings, although they will be overtaken by New Zealand should they lose in Wellington and Dunedin. The last time the sides met, in last year's Tri-Nations in Christchurch, the Springboks fielded a virtual reserve side, and of the 44 players involved tomorrow only five survive from 11 months ago: CJ van der Linde for South Africa; Mils Muliaina, Daniel Carter, Tony Woodcock and Rodney So'oialo for the All Blacks.

There is a feeling among some of the South Africa squad, the more senior members in particular, that victory tomorrow would make the Boks the undisputed world champions. Like New Zealand they have lost players to Europe after the World Cup. However, John Smit and Victor Matfield have returned, while the South African Rugby Union allows its national coach to pick a quota of players who are based outside the country, such as Percy Montgomery and Butch James.

South Africa were the best organised team in the World Cup, but any notion that the departure of the coach, Jake White, would lead to a period of transition was dispelled by the ease with which they overcame the Six Nations champions Wales in the first Test at Bloemfontein. New Zealand, minus key figures of last year's side, such as Carl Hayman, Jerry Collins, Anton Oliver, Byron Kelleher and Aaron Mauger, not to mention the injured Richie McCaw, have a vulnerability that victories over a reactive England did little to disguise.

Yet the All Blacks retain the capacity (at least outside knock-out rugby) to strike when it matters, as they showed against Ireland. They went into the World Cup as a counter-attacking side, never more dangerous than when the opposition was in possession, forcing turnovers and running at disorganised defences. They showed against England that they are now creating more off their own ball, no doubt a response to the experimental law variations, which will be used in the Tri-Nations, which will see defenders having to stand five yards back from a scrum.

Creativity is an area in which New Zealand score over South Africa, but the Springboks will back themselves to win the battle of the breakdown in McCaw's absence. It will be interesting to see how the new laws affect South Africa's line-out, which was so dominant in France. The capacity of New Zealand teams through the years has been to see the possibilities in new laws before others, both in exploiting them and in preventing opponents from doing so, and although Graham Henry is the only head coach of a major southern-hemisphere side to have survived the World Cup, the All Blacks have moved on tactically.

Australia sit out the first two rounds, which suits their new coach, Robbie Deans, who has a third match in charge of the side tomorrow when France will be looking to make more of an impression than they did in Sydney last week. The Wallabies have tightened up under the New Zealander: even Al Baxter got stuck into the scrums against Les Bleus, but they have so far only played in short patches and look short in certain positions.

The Deans factor will give the July 26 meeting against New Zealand an even sharper edge because many in his homeland felt he should have taken over from Henry. Two of the Wallabies' three fixtures against the All Blacks are at home, while they face the Springboks in South Africa twice in a week at the end of August.

Away victories are likely to be rare, making bonus points crucial to deciding the champions. The organisers of the tournament are concerned that its format, with sides playing each other three times, detracts from its spectator appeal and Argentina may be invited to join from 2010. It would make sense from a rugby perspective, but the matches in South America would have to be played in a block, as they are now in South Africa, and it would take some organisation to have two matches played on the same weekend.

It is a paradox of the game that while the better teams are in the south, the money is in Europe. The law variations are a misguided attempt to redress that.