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13/06/2007
While the lock "crisis" gives us all something to worry about at a time of the four-year rugby cycle when New Zealanders have a natural tendency to navel gaze, it's hard to escape the feeling that Graham Henry's All Blacks are smack-bang on target to bring home the bacon.Sure, the margin of error may have been diminished somewhat in the second row, and that line could even be plunged into the negative regions if Chris Jack doesn't make the trip to Durban next week because of the pending birth of his first child.
Equally, I'm not convinced that Ross Filipo is a test-quality lock (much as I'm not convinced that Reuben Thorne is one either), though I could see the All Blacks getting by well enough with a second row of Troy Flavell and Greg Rawlinson for the Boks.
And, let's face it, if the All Blacks play well enough in the other areas of their game -- at the scrum, getting numbers to the breakdown, clearing quick ball, and using it efficiently through that devastating backline of theirs -- then it shouldn't matter too much that they're down a few front-rankers in the second row.
This, after all, is just the sort of thing that Henry has been planning for with his rotation, reconditioning and wide selection net. He's been building depth just so as little crises like these don't bite too deep when it counts.
Sure, the situation at lock is a little more dire then even the most avowed pessimist could have predicted, but when you still have two players as good as Jack (baby's arrival notwithstanding) and Troy Flavell to call on, all is a long way from being lost. And have you noticed? That Rawlinson is a big lump of a man himself.
Further, this is only the Tri Nations we are talking about. In case you've forgotten, it is largely irrelevant in World Cup year. The All Blacks won it in imperious fashion in 2003, but lost the one that counted against the Wallabies later that year. And we all know which result still sticks in our craw.
Everything about these All Blacks tells me they're right on track to bring the Cup home later this year. There simply isn't a weakness in their game and there's also a consistency of performance that says they just don't have a "semifinal shocker" in their makeup.
Rightly you might point out that the Springboks are a concern and that they seem to be coming right at the right time. Sure enough. But the Boks at home are one thing, and the South Africans in neutral territory are another altogether. Their record simply ain't that flash anywhere but in front of their manic fans.
They'll still be the ones to beat come September and October, most probably, but there are so many things yet that could undermine Jake White's team that it will probably be 50-50 whether they can work their way through the other side of the draw to the final.
Whereas I just can't see Henry's men missing a beat. That scrum is simply fabulous, the loose trio playing at a level few in the world can aspire to and as a backline the All Blacks simply don't have a peer in the world game. Moreover, their execution of, and ability to change, the game-plan is light years ahead of previous generations.
The lineout will worry some people, and it is such a contestable area these days that it can develop a wobble or two. But since the late-2006 correction, there's been a much more solid look about the All Black set piece.
What about selection? Is there a Leon MacDonald or a Christian Cullen brain-explosion lurking to undermine Henry?
Quite possibly. If he moves Mils Muliaina from fullback to centre it has the potential to be a negative factor. I sincerely think that, if only because I don't believe in ignoring history. Or tempting fate.
Mils would do a fine job in the No 13 jersey, don't get me wrong. But he's the world's best fullback, and I implore Henry and co to leave him there.
What they must decide is whether they will risk the extraordinary talents (and occasional foibles) of Isaia Toeava at centre, or go with the more dependable, but less explosive Conrad Smith.
It's a similar call at second five, though for mine Luke McAlister must be the first choice. As good as Aaron Mauger is, McAlister is better. He hits harder on defence, runs better into the gaps and can distribute and kick equally as well.
He flies through the air with the greatest of ease ... Joe Rokocoko©Getty Images/AFP
Elsewhere this team probably selects itself. Joe Rokocoko has shown that he deserves a spot alongside the world's best wing Sitiveni Sivivatu and Byron Kelleher will be the man sending Dan Carter on his way, despite the qualities of Piri Weepu who will have to wait till next year to become the premier halfback. And at hooker it's a coin-toss between the power of Anton Oliver and the explosiveness of Kevvy Mealamu. Either does the trick nicely.
So how important is this Tri Nations then? Not very, is the simple answer.
If the All Blacks win in Durban and Melbourne they'll tighten their stranglehold on their rivals, but really they have a fairly firm hold on them already. And if they lose, they'll have a chance to put things right back at home soon after anyway.
And really regardless of how things play out over the next month or so it all comes down to the one-off in France later in the year anyway.
The thing is: Henry's men are playing at such a peak of performance, that I believe they simply won't be vulnerable to that one shocker that turns up every four years. I'm convinced that's simply not in their repertoire any more.
By the way, earlier this week I stated the case for Jono Gibbes as a replacement lock for the All Blacks. I understand the Chiefs second rower is injured, and I figured that was the case at the time, the big fella having been withdrawn from the Maori and Junior All Blacks squads.
But I just wonder how injured he is? Badly enough that he would have turned the All Blacks down? We may never know, but I just wonder whether Henry should have made that call just to find out.
Regardless we can only wish Ali Williams and Keith Robinson the speediest of recoveries. Both should be there for the Cup, if only for our peace of mind.
*Disclaimer - Views expressed within this story are not necessarily the views of this Blog
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